Monday, August 30, 2010

Infovest21 Investor Sentiment Survey: Investors “neutral” to “negative” on UCITS funds

Investors “neutral” to “negative” on UCITS funds
In Infovest21's just-released quarterly sentiment survey of investors, 30% of the investors said they are “somewhat negative” or “very negative” on UCITS funds compared with 15% who view them as “somewhat positive” or “very positive.” One-half of the sample said they were neutral on UCITS funds.

Lois Peltz, president of Infovest21, observed, "Those taking a neutral stances said they were taking a wait-and- see approach to see if UCITS performed, what jurisdictions adopt it or what the tracking error looks like through a market cycle. Criticism included more assets leading to more hot money, not all strategies being compatible with liquidity structures, not a proxy for due diligence, and the regulatory wrapper gives a false sense of security."

Investors most positive about global macro over the next three months and 12 months

Of the 22 strategies asked about, the majority of investors felt "neutral" about 13 over the next three months, "somewhat positive" about eight, and "somewhat negative" about one. In the prior quarter, investors were "somewhat positive" about 12 strategies and “neutral" about 8.

In eight strategies, the majority of investors felt "somewhat positive." In rank order, these are: global macro (90)%, event driven/special situations (65%), distressed (55%), foreign exchange (50%), multi-strategy (50%), merger arbitrage (45%), mortgage backed (45%), and volatility arbitrage (40%).

In 13 strategies, the majority of investors felt "neutral." In order, these are: convertible arbitrage (60%), energy (60%), ETFs (60%), activists (55%), sector (55%), market neutral (50%), asset based lending (45%), emerging markets (45%), equity long/short (45%), managed futures (45%), short biased (40%), statistical arbitrage (35%), and fixed income arbitrage (35%).

In only one strategy, PIPES, did the majority of investors (55%) feel "somewhat negative."



Looking out over the next 12 months, investor sentiment becomes more positive. In no market did the majority of investors feel "very positive"
while in 11 markets, the majority of investors felt "somewhat positive" and in 10 markets, the majority of investors felt "neutral." In one market, the majority of investors were "somewhat negative." Last quarter, none of the investors felt “very positive” about any market over the next 12 months, the majority of investor felt “somewhat positive” in 13, “neutral” in 10 and “negative” about two.

The majority of investors were "somewhat positive" in global macro (88%), event driven/special situations (76%), distressed (59%),
multi-strategy (59%), energy (53%), emerging markets (47%), foreign exchange (47%), managed futures (47%), merger arbitrage (47%), equity long/short (41%) and volatility arbitrage (41%).

The majority of investors were “neutral” about market neutral (71%), convertible arbitrage (65%), activists (62%), ETFs (59%), mortgage backed (59%),
statistical arbitrage (53%), short biased (47%), and sector (47%).

In one market - PIPES - the majority of investors (59%) felt "somewhat negative."

Methodology: Infovest21 conducts this survey on a quarterly basis. This quarter, one-half of the investors responding were funds of funds while 25% were family offices and another 25% were consultants and pensions.

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Top Pension Funds By Assets ($B)

  • California Public Employees 214.6
  • Federal Retirement Thrift 210.6
  • California State Teachers 147.2
  • New York State Common 138.4
  • Florida State Board 118.7
  • General Motors 110.3
  • New York City Retirement 107.3
  • Texas Teachers 95.9
  • AT&T 89.6
  • New York State Teachers 88.5
  • IBM 78.9
  • Wisconsin Investment Board 74.5
  • New Jersey 71.8
  • North Carolina 70.5
  • General Electric 70.3
  • Ohio Public Employees 69.6
  • Boeing 68.9
  • Ohio State Teachers 62.9
  • Washington State Board 61.5
  • Michigan Retirement 57.2
  • Oregon Public Employees 55.3
  • Pennsylvania School Employees 54.7
  • Verizon 51.8
  • Virginia Retirement 50.4
  • Ford Motor 48.8
  • University of California 47.1
  • Georgia Teachers 46.6
  • Minnesota State Board 46.5
  • Massachusetts PRIM 45.4
  • Lockheed Martin 43.8
  • Alcatel Lucent 41.3
  • Colorado Employees 36.6
  • United Nations Joint Staff 35.4
  • Los Angeles County Employees 35.2
  • Illinois Teachers 34.1
  • Maryland State Retirement 32.7
  • Northrop Grumman 31.9
  • Pennsylvania Employees 31.1
  • Teamsters, Western 30.3
  • Tennessee Consolidated 30.3
  • Bank of America 28.5
  • Exxon Mobil 28.0
  • Alabama Retirement 27.6
  • United Technologies 27.5
  • Chrysler 26.6
  • National Railroad 25.3
  • Missouri Public Schools 24.6
  • Utah State Retirement 24.5
  • South Carolina Retirement 24.5
  • DuPont 24.4
  • United Parcel Service 23.6
  • Arizona State Retirement 23.6
  • Connecticut Retirement 23.6
  • Raytheon 22.8
  • Texas Employees 21.9
  • Citigroup 21.2
  • Teamsters, Central States 21.2
  • Iowa Public Employees 2.6
  • Nevada Public Employees 20.6
  • Illinois Municipal 20.6
  • Hewlett Packard 20.1
  • JPMorgan Chase 19.9
  • Chevron 19.4
  • Honeywell 18.9
  • Mississippi Employees 18.9
  • Dow Chemical 18.7
  • State Farm 17.5
  • Alaska Retirement 17.4
  • Procter & Gamble 17.1
  • FedEx 16.9
  • Kaiser 16.9
  • Shell Oil 16.8
  • American Airlines 16.7
  • 3M 16.2
  • Wells Fargo 16.2
  • San Francisco City & County 15.9
  • United Methodist Church 14.8
  • Prudential 14.6
  • Texas County & District 14.4
  • Texas Municipal Retirement 14.1
  • BP American 14.1
  • Indiana Public Employees 13.9
  • Georgia Employees 13.9
  • World Bank 13.8
  • Illinois State Universities 13.7
  • Los Angeles Fire & Police 13.2
  • Caterpillar 13.2
  • Wachovia 13.2
  • Kentucky Teachers 13.2
  • Louisiana Teachers 13.1
  • Illinois State Board 12.9
  • Delphia 12.9
  • National Electric 12.6
  • Johnson & Johnson 12.6
  • Eastman Kodak 12.5
  • Pfizer 12.5
  • General Dynamics 12.3
  • PG&E 11.9
  • ConocoPhillips 11.9
  • Kentucky Retirement 11.7
  • Exelon 11.6
  • Kansas Public Employees 11.6
  • Deere 11.6
  • Qwest 11.3
  • New Mexico Public Employees 11.0
  • Kraft Foods 10.9
  • International Paper 10.9
  • Alcoa 10.8
  • Siemens USA 10.7
  • Ohio Police & Fire 10.7
  • MetLife 10.7
  • Southern Co 10.5
  • Chicago Teachers 10.3
  • Federal Reserve Employees 10.1
  • Idaho Public Employees 9.9
  • Hawaii Employees 9.8
  • New York State Deferred Comp 9.8
  • Los Angeles City Employees 9.7
  • Ohio School Employees 9.6
  • Arkansas Teachers 9.6
  • Maine State Retirement 9.6
  • Wal-Mart Stores 9.5
  • Weyerhaeuser 9.5
  • Consolidated Edison 9.5
  • Koch Industries 9.5
  • US Steel 9.4
  • Abbott Laboratories 8.9
  • Episcopal Church 8.9
  • 1199SEIU National 8.9
  • Motorola 8.8
  • Operating Eng. International 8.8
  • Xerox 8.8
  • Altria 8.7
  • PepsiCo 8.4
  • Delta Air Lines 8.4
  • Missouri State Employees 8.3
  • Eli Lilly 8.3
  • Oklahoma Teachers 8.2
  • National Rural Electric 8.1
  • Boilermaker-Blacksmith 8.1
  • Northwest Airlines 8.0
  • Sears Holding 8.0
  • Aetna 7.9
  • New Mexico Educational 7.9
  • New York City Deferred Comp 7.9
  • Electrical Ind, Joint Board 7.9
  • Intel 7.9
  • Nebraska Investment Council 7.8
  • Indiana Teachers 7.8
  • JC Penney 7.8
  • Louisiana State Employees 7.8
  • Merck 7.8
  • IAM National 7.7
  • Tennessee Valley Authority 7.5
  • San Diego County 7.5
  • West Virginia Investment 7.5
  • National Grid 7.5
  • South Dakota 7.5
  • Glaxo Smith Kline 7.3
  • Rhode Island Employees 7.3
  • Allstate 7.2
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb 7.2
  • Delaware Public Employees 7.1
  • Dominion Resources 7.1
  • ITT 7.0
  • Orange County 7.0
  • Montana Board of Investments 6.9
  • Merrill Lynch 6.9
  • Ohio Deferred Comp 6.8
  • Los Angeles Water & Powere 6.8
  • Walt Disney 6.8
  • Presbytarian Church 6.7
  • Time Warner 6.7
  • First Energy 6.6
  • Cook County Employees 6.6
  • Supervalu 6.6
  • UFCW Industry, IL 6.5
  • Bank of New York Mellon 6.4
  • CBS 6.4
  • American Electric 6.4
  • Oklahoma Public Employees 6.4
  • Target 6.3
  • Duke Energy 6.2
  • Hartford Financial 6.2
  • Unisys 6.2
  • Liberty Mutual 6.2
  • General Mills 6.2
  • FMR 6.2
  • Arizona Public Safety 6.1
  • IMF 6.1
  • Reynolds American 6.0
  • Anheuser-Busch 6.0
  • Sacramento County 6.0
  • Southern California Edison 5.9
  • Wyeth 5.9
  • Los Angeles County Deferred 5.8
  • Morgan Stanley 5.8
  • Wyoming Retirement 5.8
  • Goodyear Tire & Rubber 5.7
  • Source: Pensions & Investments, as of Sept 2008